This is a prediction from a good friend, Josh, who is headed to South Africa for the Cup. I plan on posting his observations from SA in addition to the Castro clan.
Flynn
Here is my thoughts on how this plays out over the next month. I think we
are in for a wild tourney.
Group Stage (1st, 2nd)
*Group A (Mexico, Uruguay)* - how is that my least favorite team (Mexico) is
paired in a group with another team I hate (France). France's internal
troubles and terrible coach doom this team in the group stage. No host
nation has ever failed to advance, but I don't think Bafana Bafana has what
it takes (unless we see some South Korean-style shady referring and the
unnerving of their opponents by 50,000 vuvuzelas).
*Group B (Argentina, Nigeria) *- hard to argue with the talent of the
Argentines. Although Maradona is a nut-job, and will probably start five
forwards, they should breeze thru this group. Nigeria doesn't have what it
did 10 years ago, but I don't think SK is any good and I hate watching
Greece play, so I'll take the Super Eagles to advance.
*Group C (England, USA) - *I wanted to talk myself into the USA knocking off
England to win the group, and I think they can, but I'll go with a
USA/England 1-1 tie on Saturday and England winning the group with a better
goal differential. Slovenia could provide challenges as they play a
disciplined, compact game, but the US should advance.
*Group D (Germany, Serbia) - *The loss of Ballack and the non-form this year
of Klose and Podolski has many questioning the Germans this year. But they
are the Germans. They methodically beat you down and show up come tourney
time. Have made it to at least the Quarters in every years since 1954.
Serbia has some fire-power, and this group has depth with Ghana (if only
Essien were playing...) and Australia, but the two Euro's advance.
*Group E (Netherlands, Cameroon) - *on talent alone, the Dutch should be
favored to advance. But they are the Dutch, and they find ways to blow out
in big games (save for Van Basten and Gullit in '88). I'd like to think
Eto'o can get the Indomitable Lions to the next stage, but considering his
blow-up last weeks in regards to comments from Roger Milla, I don't know if
his heads in the game. Denmark is always a tough team in these tourney's, so
could pose a threat (and a surprise), but I'm picking the African side.
Japan sucks.
*Group F (Italy, Paraguay) - *Hate this Italian side. Too old, too boring.
But they have Buffon and Lippi gets them to play. Don't count them out.
Slovakia / Paraguay is a toss-up, but I'm taking Paraguay.
*Group G (Brazil, Ivory Coast) - *Group of Death. Brazil, under Dunga, has
gone away from the Beautiful Game and plays more European than before. But
they are more disciplined and still have loads of talent in Kaka and Maicon.
Lacking the big name forward of years past, but they are still Brazil.
Portugal hasn't been on form, and with Nani now missing the WC, I'm going
Les Elephantes to get thru even if Drogba doesn't play. But I think he comes
out with a cast on and an inspired performance, knocking a few home against
the Kim Jong-Il's. I just hope KJI doesn't start an incident when they get
trounced in every game.
*Group H (Spain, Chile) - *Spain has the most talent of any team in the
world. With Brazil, they have to be the favorite. Chile has some firepower
up front and plays a fun, attacking game. I like them to get thru instead of
the boring Swiss. Honduras sucks.
*Knockout Stage*
Game 1 (1A v 2B) - Mexico v Nigeria. I hate to take Mexico into the
quarters, but I guess I will. Mexico 2-1.
Game 2 (1C v 2D) - England v Serbia. Trendy picks on both teams. After the
group stage, I'll root for the limeys. England 3-1.
Game 3 (1E v 2F) - Netherlands v Paraguay. Paraguay's style could hurt the
Dutch, but I expect a high-scoring game with the Dutch prevailing. Dutch
4-2.
Game 4 (1G v 2H) - Brazil v Chile. Battle of CONMEBOL. Brazil 3-1.
Game 5 (1B v 2A) - Argentina v Uruguay. Another all SA affair. Messi goes
off. Argentina 3-0.
Game 6 (1D v 2C) - Germany v USA. Revenge of '02. Germans can't crack the US
defense and Dempsey knocks in the winner. USA 1-0.
Game 7 (1F v 2E) - Italy v Cameroon. I need an upset. Cameroon takes out the
defending champs 2-1.
Game 8 (1H v 2G) - Spain v Ivory Coast. Leaf and I will be at this game in
Cape Town. Hoping for a high scoring game. Spain 4-2.
*Quarters
*Winner 1 v Winner 2: Mexico v England. I hate the Mexican national team.
Rooney scores a brace and Gerrard puts a ball through Marquez head. England
3-1.
Winner 3 v Winner 4: Netherlands v Brazil. Rematch of the great match in
Dallas in '94. I'm going with a repeat scoreline. Brazil 3-2.
Winner 5 v Winner 6: Argentina v USA. I like the US squad, and Maradona is a
terrible coach, but Messi and company will run circles around our D.
Argentina 3-1.
Winner 7 v Winner 8: Cameroon v Spain. Lions run ends just like in '90.
Torres brace. Spain 2-0.
*Semis
*England v Brazil. While David Seaman won't be in net to let in a 45 yard
shot like in '02, British goalies still suck. Brazil 2-1 on a late David
James gaffe. England mourns and throws pint glasses at the TV's.
Argentina v Spain. Could be the game of the tourney, but the discipline of
Spain shuts down the Argentines. Spain 2-0.
*Final
*Brazil v Spain. I don't want the Brazilians to win another. Spain has too
much talent not to win the Cup this year. Spain 3-2 in OT, with David Villa
connecting to send the red shirts through to glory.
Yes, I should be working, but we are only two days away from the greatest
sporting event in the world. Enjoy the Cup!